NBA In-Season Tournament odds: Analyzing favorites, sleepers in inaugural event

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Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) 06122023
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Influenced by the soccer world, the NBA is adding a little spice to the regular season through its first In-Season Tournament, an event baked into the schedule that will crown a separate champion in Las Vegas on Dec. 9.

NBA In-Season Tournament betting odds at top-rated online sportsbooks have the Celtics (), Bucks () and Nuggets () listed as favorites.

How it works: NBA In-Season Tournament format and odds to win title

Games designated as a part of the in-season tournament will be played on Tuesdays and Fridays, starting with the action Nov. 3.

Here are live odds from top sports betting apps to win the inaugural championship:

 

Teams are separated into six groups of five and all play one another once to determine a pecking order. Each group winner advances to the knockout stage alongside the top second-place team in each conference among the three groups.

After the quarterfinals are played on Dec. 4 or 5, the four finalists will travel to Las Vegas to crown a champ, with the semifinals set for Dec. 7 and the winner-take-all final on Dec. 9 at T-Mobile Arena. 

Now that you know the basics, let’s break down the groups.

NBA In-Season Tournament betting odds: Hawks could make waves In East Group A

 

One reason to ride with Atlanta beyond the nice potential payout is that it comes into this event as the healthiest team and won’t have its first game until Nov. 17. Indiana and Cleveland square off in the first game in this group and both have major injury concerns.

Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliberton is questionable with an ankle injury, Bennedict Mathurin isn’t 100 percent due to an elbow issue, and backup big man Jalen Smith has been dealing with a sprained knee cap. 

Still, if you’re going to play the Cavs in a matchup that is a little more important than your average regular-season game, now is the time to take them on. Cleveland has been without Jarrett Allen all season and has seen point guard Darius Garland suit up only once due to a hamstring issue.

The 76ers haven’t missed a beat without James Harden but will now have to incorporate a host of new faces after moving him, so even though they’re rightfully favored in East Group A, they could be vulnerable and play the Hawks on the road.

Philly does host Indiana and Cleveland, but taking a shot with the Hawks to win this group at 5-to-1 odds could pay off handsomely. Forward Jalen Johnson looks like one of the NBA’s most improved players and Dejounte Murray has already produced one of this season’s biggest games, scoring 41 points in a comeback win over Minnesota.

NBA In-Season Tournament East Group B odds: Bucks likely to roll

 

Although the Bucks have suffered a couple of early blowout losses, as Khris Middleton ramps up and Damian Lillard gets acclimated to his new surroundings, their first action in the in-season tourney come against the Knicks at home, and they should be playing at a higher level when they visit Miami in the game that could ultimately decide this group winner of Nov. 28. 

The Heat are the only other team we’d consider since they have historically had success against Milwaukee and New York when it matters most. Their first game, home against woeful Washington, gives them an opportunity to get off to a strong start in group play while Jimmy Butler continues playing himself into a groove after missing the preseason. 

New York will be a factor if Julius Randle is able to snap out of his early funk, but neither he or Jalen Brunson have started off playing as well as they did last season.

The Hornets and Wizards may ultimately help decide who comes out on top if they’re able to pull off an upset, but they won’t be advancing. 

East Group C’s depth will test Celtics during In-Season Tournament

 

Boston has posted a 155-point game against Indiana and was only seriously challenged in the season opener in New York, so it deserves the favorite’s tag in this tournament.

The Celtics are expected to win Group C, but have a tougher road than the Bucks since there are no easy outs in this mix.  

The Raptors, Bulls, Nets and Magic are all teams capable of beating anyone in front of them on any given night, which means Boston can’t afford to take any nights off. 

If you’re looking to ride one of the longshots instead of the C’s, Toronto might be your best bet. The Raptors host Boston and match up well with them since Scottie Barnes’ game has blossomed and they have willing plus defenders in OG Anunoby and Dennis Schroder capable of creating havoc.

The Nets also have guys capable of matching up with the Celtics’ best players in Mikal Bridges and Ben Simmons, while a deep Orlando team looks much improved and was by far the best of the Pot 5 teams, which makes C the deepest of the East’s groups. 

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NBA In-Season Tournament odds: West Group A likely to come down to Suns vs. Lakers showdown

 

Because the Grizzlies were the West’s No. 2 seed last season and won’t have the services of Ja Morant for this tournament, Group A is likely to come down to the Nov. 10 matchup between the Lakers and Suns in Phoenix.

The Suns are hopeful that Bradley Beal will finally debut in time for that clash since they’ve exercised caution with his gimpy hamstring to ensure that issue doesn’t linger into 2024. That’s going to be the first game of group play for both Pacific Division juggernauts, who have already seen each other once this season, with L.A. defeating the Suns at Crypto.com Arena 100-95 on Oct. 26, taking advantage of the absence of Devin Booker and Beal.

Memphis may be able to play spoiler, but also losing Steven Adams before the season started and not having Brandon Clarke in the lineup just yet hinders their ability to compete with the big boys.

The Jazz actually look like the better bet if you’re looking to back someone other than Phoenix or L.A. to win this group. Lauri Markkanen was a first-time All-Star last season and hasn’t lost any of his edge, and the addition of John Collins and maturation of center Walker Kessler gives Utah one of the league’s most loaded frontcourts.

Given that they host favored Phoenix, the Jazz could make noise if they protect homecourt.

The Blazers are out to play spoiler, but lost any hope of competing for group supremacy when guard Anfernee Simons was lost for a month with a thumb ligament tear, taking him out of the equation for this in-season event.

Rookie point guard Scoot Henderson was lost for the tournament opener at home against Memphis due to an ankle sprain. 

NBA West Group B odds: Champs saddled with ‘Group of Death’

 

The Nuggets would love to add to their rather barren collection of hardware since the NBA title they won last June is a little lonely, but the draw for this inaugural in-season tournament did them no favors.

Denver will have to go through a gauntlet of excellent teams just to reach the knockout round, so they’re one favorite you want to avoid despite the presence of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and the crew. 

James Harden will have at least one game with the Clippers under his belt by the time he takes the court in the tournament opener for L.A. in Dallas on Nov. 10. The Clippers, Mavericks and Pelicans are all capable of winning this group with a hot run.

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The Rockets should bring up the rear, but look much improved with veteran guards Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks in place, so there will simply be no easy games in West B.

Denver does catch a break in hosting Dallas to open group play on Nov. 3 because Kyrie Irving is dealing with a foot sprain that has kept him out of action for a few games, so getting off to a strong start by keeping Luka Doncic from stealing a game at Ball Arena may be an easier task.

New Orleans should have Brandon Ingram back alongside Zion Williamson when it opens play in a Gulf Coast showdown in Houston on Nov. 10.The Pels should get key pieces like Trey Murphy III, Navi Marshall and Jose Alvarado back along the way and since they host the Nuggets and Mavs, taking a flier on them at 4-to-1 or higher could be interesting.

NBA In-Season Tournament Betting: Veteran Warriors favored against the talented kids in West Group C

 

Golden State will rely on its championship pedigree to try and get out of this group alive, but it remains to be seen whether their experience can overcome all the young legs they’ll be tasked with competing against.

Consider some of the names in this group. De’Aaron Fox, Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Victor Wembanyama all have next in one form or another.

The Kings were the NBA’s biggest surprise last season. The Thunder arrived as a competitor earlier than anyone expected. The Timberwolves are loaded. The Spurs have an impressive young nucleus and added the most heralded prospect since LeBron James to that mix with the No. 1 pick over the summer.

The Warriors have opened the season in fine fashion, getting Draymond Green back from an ankle sprain and winning all three games he’s appeared in entering the Group C opener in Oklahoma City. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be forced to sit with a knee sprain, so Golden State has a great chance to get off to a strong start.

Golden State has defeated Sacramento twice already this season, and although neither game counted for this in-season tournament, it has won big games in Cali’s capital city in the past and will be confident going into the Nov. 28 duel between the two Group C frontrunners.

Minnesota is worth a look since its size could pose a problem for the Warriors and all it would take would be an upset in San Francisco to put the Timberwolves in pole position to get out of this group.

San Antonio won’t win this group but is capable of being a dangerous spoiler, particularly at home, where the Spurs host the Timberwolves and Kings.

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Tony Mejia Photo

Tony Mejia is in his fourth decade writing about sports and sports gambling. He served as CBS Sportsline's National NBA writer and also penned a bracketology column for that site. Mejia has worked as a handicapper, analyst and video content creator for a variety of betting sites for the last decade-plus, while also writing for staples Gaming Today and the GoldSheet.