Cowboys Up: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb steadily climbing odds boards for NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year

For a squad nicknamed "America's Team," the 6-3 Cowboys sure have flown under the radar this season. They have scored the most points in the NFC (269) while allowing the second-fewest points (165). They're 4-0 at home. They rank among the top four in points, yardage, points allowed, and total yards allowed. Yet, hardly anyone seems to be placing them among the NFL's Super Bowl contenders, and everyone seems to be sleeping on Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb for NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year. 

The storylines around those respective awards have been largely dominated by the mainstays of the past few years. For MVP, we've seen the usual suspects atop the odds boards: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and most recently Joe Burrow. They've been joined this year by Dolphins' gunslinger Tua Tagovailoa, who also finds himself a top candidate for Comeback Player of the Year after his concussion-ravaged 2022 season. Until this week, Prescott was an afterthought at +6600, and his current odds at +4000 still translate to just a 2.5-percent implied winning percentage.

For Offensive Player of the Year, we've been so busy talking about Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown that we managed to completely overlook how amazing Lamb has been. Like Prescott, the fourth-year wideout maxed out at +6600 odds for OPOY as recently as last week. However, Lamb vaulted to +3500 this week after posting a record-breaking third-consecutive game with 10-plus catches and 150-plus yards. With the Cowboys' manageable rest-of-season schedule, both Prescott and Lamb might be the strongest dark horses to take down some hardware this winter.

Let's dive into the respective odds boards for NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year and discuss whether Prescott and Lamb should be viewed as strong value bets for both.

NFL MVP 2023 odds: Is Dak Prescott a good bet?

All odds and insights are from BetMGM.

As you can see, Dak started the season among the seven players with the shortest odds to win MVP, but the beginning of the season brought more attention to Cowboys linebacker and Swiss Army knife Micah Parsons than it brought the Dallas QB. That has changed in a major way over the past three weeks, with Prescott going nuclear and consequently enjoying a seismic shift in odds. He now sits just outside the top 10 at +4000, still a relative long shot. 

Now is the time to get some action in on Prescott, for multiple reasons:

1. He's playing the best football of his career.
2. He's playing on arguably the best overall Cowboys team of the 21st century.
3. Dallas has one of the easiest second-half passing schedules in the NFL.

Roll your eyes at statements 1, 2, or 3 all you want — we've got data to back it all up. First, let's look at the performance of Prescott himself. Over the past three weeks, he has played like a man possessed, posting over 360 passing yards per game, 12 total touchdowns, a 72.9-percent completion rate, and just two picks. Prescott now leads the NFL with a 70.7-percent completion rate, he ranks third in both passing TDs (17) and QB rating (105.1), and his 8.1 average yards per pass thrown ranks fourth. 

Prescott does have six interceptions, but his interception rate has dropped substantially from 3.8 last season to 2.0 during this campaign. If he can continue on this pace, which is entirely possible given the squads lined up to face the Cowboys over the next seven weeks, he could very well be recognized as the Most Valuable Player. 

The Cowboys are clicking on all cylinders right now. The passing game has looked immaculate. The lines on both sides of the ball have been strong. Micah Parsons and this defense have been stifling. It's rare for a team to rank top four in scoring, yards, points surrendered, total yards allowed, third-down conversion percentage, and third-down conversions allowed, but Dallas checks off all those boxes. This team isn't just a power player in the NFC — it's a bona fide Super Bowl contender. 

As we all know, MVP is a regular-season award, which actually serves Prescott well. Like his predecessor Tony Romo, Prescott has never enjoyed much success in the playoffs, but just look at Dak's rest-of-season (ROS) schedule: @ Carolina, vs. Washington, vs. Seattle. vs. Philadelphia, @ Buffalo, @ Miami, and vs. Detroit. There are a lot of potential playoff teams on that list, but that actually helps Prescott if he gets through it with two or fewer losses. Moreover, it's going to lead to big stats. Fantasy footballers know that four of those seven opponents rank among the 10-most generous defenses to QBs, which is why FantasyPros has Dak as the only NFL QB with a five-star strength of schedule for both the ROS and the fantasy playoffs.

Those squads have surrendered a ton of passing TDs (105 in 65 games). The Cowboys' opponents the rest of the way are either (1) strong offenses with questionable or injury-ravaged secondaries or (2) awful teams that are tanking and/or rebuilding. All seven teams have been generous against the pass, though, so Prescott has a much better chance than his 2.5-percent implied MVP probability suggests. If he gets to the 37-40 TD mark without finishing with 12-plus interceptions — and Dallas wins the NFC — how can he not at least be in the discussion?

Thirty-eight is a doable number, too. Philly and Washington have allowed the most air scores per game (2.1), and both have actually regressed over the past three weeks, with the Eagles allowing 2.7 pass TDs per game in that span and the Commanders allowing 2.3/game. Detroit has allowed 1.7 pass TDs on the season but 2.3 over the past three games, and the Lions just let Justin Herbert and the Chargers find the end zone through the air four times. Opponents of Miami and Buffalo always need to air it out, so they have also allowed two air TDs per game over their past three. Seattle just let Sam Howell rack up three passing TDs. If he really wants to go for it, Dak should be able to do whatever he wants against an overmatched Carolina squad this week, too.

We're going for it. At +4000, the value is there, so get in while you still can before casual bettors realize the tear this dude is on and the possibility that the best is yet to come. 

Betting advice: Bet $20 on Prescott +4000 to win MVP. If he wins, we net $800 and laugh all the way to the bank about a Cowboys QB coming through for us. 

NFL Offensive Player of the Year 2023 odds: Is CeeDee Lamb a good bet?

Since Justin Jefferson's hamstring injury earlier this season, Offensive Player of the Year has basically been regarded as a two-man race between McCaffrey and Hill, with A.J. Brown getting the occasional mention. Chase will always be a contender to make a late-season push for an award like this, simply because he's so electric, but Lamb below Chase right here and right now seems preposterous. We can't help but jump at the opportunity to get him at +3500 for OPOY. 

Over the past three weeks, Lamb has 34 catches, 500 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Let that sink in for a minute. He's the first wide receiver in the Super Bowl era to haul in 10-plus catches and 150-plus yards in three consecutive games, and with the juiciest rest-of-season schedule for any wideout in the NFL, there's no telling how fast and how far this locomotive can travel between now and Week 18. 

If Prescott has a shot at MVP, Lamb has an even better shot at OPOY. Their success goes hand-in-hand, and it can be argued that Lamb plays a larger part in the offensive success of his team than any of the skill-position players ahead of him do for their teams. Take CMC, Hill, Brown, and Chase off their respective teams and those squads are still probably playoff teams. Take CeeDee off the Cowboys and Dallas might be a bottom-10 team. 

The volume Lamb has enjoyed over the past three weeks has been massive. In that span, he has played 183 snaps, run 123 routes, and been targeted 44 times. Those numbers alone are gargantuan, and the fact that he turned all that into 34 catches and 500 yards is just mind-melting. If he even comes close to this kind of volume over the remaining seven games, it would be very difficult to envision him on the outside of the OPOY race looking in. 

Hill has also been insanely durable (knock on wood) throughout his four-year career, while McCaffrey, Hill, Brown, and Chase have suffered multiple injuries as pros. As of Week 11, Lamb has played an astounding 58 of the Cowboys' 59 regular-season games and all three playoff games since he entered the NFL. That's unheard of in this day and age, and his low risk of injury makes him an even more intriguing dark-horse candidate for this award. 

The Cowboys' schedule remains the most alluring factor, though. Dallas gets two different dates with Washington and one tilt with Philadelphia, teams that have surrendered passing-yard averages of 301.3 and 306.7, respectively, over their past three games. Shootouts with Miami, Buffalo, Detroit, and Seattle should help, and lord knows how Carolina will fare against Lamb this weekend. Tyreek Hill had six catches for 163 yards and a TD when he faced the Panthers a month ago.

At the very least, Lamb should jump into the Big Three by season's end if he can get to 10-12 TDs. If he cracks 2,000 yards — a distinct possibility considering he's at 975 and has put up 150 a game over his past three — he's a virtual lock. CMC and the 49ers have come back to Earth over the past month, and San Francisco draws tough second-half matchups against Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. Hill, meanwhile, has two tough matchups with the Jets remaining, as well as meetings with Dallas and Baltimore. Let's go on the Lamb!

Betting advice: Put $25 on Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year. That's a $900 payout if he wins and a total payout of $1,720 on a combined $45 investment if Prescott also wins MVP. You would also have a killer betting story to tell for the rest of your days.