As turkey comas subside (in theory at least), the Buffalo Bills (6-5) will make a quick trip to the home of the Declaration of Independence and the Philadelphia Eagles (9-1), who boast the best record in football.
The Eagles are fresh from avenging (sort of) their 38-35 loss Super Bowl LVII loss to the Kansas City Chiefs by beating them 21-17 on Monday Night Football in Week 11. The Bills are also feeling good on the heels of a 32-6 dismantling of the New York Jets at home. After all, losing to the Zach Wilson-led Jets twice in a year would not be a feather in the cap toward making the playoffs by any means.
Buffalo is 2-3 in their last five games. They have to be hopeful that their resounding win over the Jets last Sunday will take them in a different direction than the month prior, when they gave up an average of 23.75 points per game while losing two games they must have though they’d win vs. the New England Patriots and their penalty-ridden fiasco vs. the Denver Broncos.
Philadelphia is 4-1 in their last five, featuring impressive victories over fellow top-tier teams like the Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins. There isn’t too much to say or dissect about a 9-1 team’s overall record, so we will examine the Bills vs. Eagles odds, props and predictions below.
Betting odds for Bills vs. Eagles: Point spread, moneyline, total for NFL Week 12 matchup
Here are the latest NFL betting odds for Bills vs. Eagles:
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Bills betting news: Buffalo's playoff hopes are alive despite rarely covering
Buffalo is 4-7 ATS, and they’ve only covered once in their last five games. Whether it be an uncanny ability to take bad penalties when they affect the spread the most, blaming and firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, or their whopping 18 turnovers (good for second-most in the league) at the time of his axing, the Bills aren’t being paid when it comes to spreads lately.
Tight end Dalton Knox’s production before his wrist injury was surprisingly low this season, totaling 15 catches for 102 yards and one TD through seven games. He was never targeted more than seven times. The writing was on the wall for his role to decrease, healthy or not, in light of the Bills drafting Dalton Kincaid in the first round, but the changing of the guard has taken place quicker than anticipated. The rookie has racked up a 53/436/2 statline thus far in 2023, featuring 24 targets in the last three games.
WR Gabe Davis has disappeared into the ether this year, somehow garnering zero targets last week vs. the Jets despite being on the field for 90% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps. His four-TD explosion vs. Kansas City in the 2022 Divisional Round seems like a fever dream, and there is no accounting for how or why this once tantalizing speedster has been relegated to the role he fulfills presently.
Eagles betting news: Philly riding a balanced offensive attack
The Eagles record ATS is nearly as impressive as their win-loss record, at 6-2-2. The Dirty Birds are 3-1-1 in their last five. From week to week it’s been a toss up whether QB Jalen Hurts will score more TDs through the air to his stellar receiving core led by A.J. Brown (6) and DeVonta Smith (4), or via the much ballyhooed Tush Push which has aided in Hurts racking up a most-impressive count of nine rushing touchdowns through the first 11 weeks of the season.
Another statistic that speaks to the extremely high level of play the Eagles offense has sustained in 2023 is the perfect balancing of their point production, featuring 15 rushing touchdowns and 15 through the air.
Jalen Hurts has thrown for more than 300 yards just once in their last five games — in a somewhat sloppy 38-31 shootout victory over the Washington Commanders in Week 9. Look for Hurts to go north of 300 this week as he and Josh Allen line up for a game that could see a lot of points getting put on the board by both teams.
The Eagles rushing defense has only allowed 76.5 yards per game on the ground this season, best in the NFL. The Bills rushing attack is producing 16 yards per game less than in 2022, and this week’s matchup will likely be largely dictated by Philadelphia bottling up the Bills on the ground and making their opponent’s playcalling more pass-heavy than they would like.
Bills vs. Eagles props
Sportsbooks had not posted Bills vs. Eagles player props as of this writing, but two angles to keep an eye on:
- Khalil Shakir anytime TD: While Gabe Davis has been MIA, Bills wideout Khalil Shakir has shown up and showed out as of late, highlighted by his 81-yard score last week. That jaunt was the longest scoring play in the league this year, and the longest since, well... Gabe Davis’s 98-yarder vs. the Steelers in 2022. Shakir’s TD wasn’t an aberration, as he has pulled down receptions of 81, 24, 23 and 20 yards in his last four games. Betting on him to find paydirt this week could help you do the same.
- D'Andre Swift UNDER rushing yards: Eagles RB D’Andre Swift has a quirky role in that his QB snakes tons of his goal line carry opportunities, and his team’s playbook on the doorstep is sort of like a Wildcat scenario where it’s either a QB sneak or a fake to a play-action pass. Whatever you call it, Swift is averaging a meager 51.2 yards per game in his last five contests. Taking the under on his rushing yards in Week 12 makes sense, depending on the number.
Bills vs. Eagles Week 12 prediction
The Eagles look even better than most thought they would this year, and the Bills look a little shakier than they were forecasted to be. Regardless, this will be an entertaining game with no shortage of offense and big chunk plays. In the end, Philadelphia should pull away and take this one 31-21.
Pick: Eagles
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