The Commanders crushed a lot of survivor pool entrants with an awful loss against an awful team in the Giants on Sunday.
The going only gets tougher for Washington at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys were our top play last week and they rolled Carolina, 33-10. The 49ers and Dolphins also came through to help us go 3-0.
That's all in the rear-view mirror, so let's hone in on NFL Week 12 survivor picks.
Survive and advance.
NFL survivor picks for Week 12 of 2023 NFL season
The Commanders are the biggest underdog on the NFL Week 12 slate. Washington has dropped four of its last five games with two of those defeats coming at the hands of the Giants. If you haven't used Dallas yet, fire on the Cowboys and watch them feast on Thanksgiving Day.
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Cowboys over Commanders
Dallas (7-3) started a little slow at Carolina, but the outcome was never in doubt from a survivor (or moneyline) perspective. Dak Prescott didn't have to do too much -- 189 passing yards and two passing TDs -- before enjoying some time on the sidelines as backup QB Cooper Rush took over in mop-up duty.
The Cowboys were savage on defense with seven sacks of Bryce Young. Micah Parsons led the way with 2.5 sacks. That could be a harbinger of bad things to come for the Commanders (4-7) and Sam Howell, who has been sacked more than any other QB in the NFL this season. Howell's been dropped a league-high 51 times. He was also picked off three times against the Giants.
Dallas is 5-0 SU & ATS in its last five home games. The Cowboys average 40 points per game at home compared to 23.8 on the road.
Bottom Line: Expect Howell to be under duress all day long. The Commanders have serious protection issues, and the Cowboys bring one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Dallas scores in bunches at home, and Washington won't be able to keep pace here.
49ers over Seahawks
We're serving up two games on Turkey Day because most of the leftovers didn't look good on Sunday. The Dolphins should take care of the Jets on Black Friday, but they haven't performed real well on the road this year. The Jets can't score, but the defense is still solid.
San Francisco (7-3) looked dominant coming of its bye week with convincing wins over Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. QB Brock Purdy hit the magic number of 158.3 with a perfect QB rating in the 27-13 win over the Bucs on Sunday. It marked the second straight week that Purdy passed for three touchdowns.
On the other side, Geno Smith suffered an elbow injury in a loss against the Rams. He's expected to go against the 49ers, but may not be at full strength. Los Angeles swept the season series over Seattle (6-4).
This is an important game with the Seahawks trailing the 49ers by one game in the NFC West standings. Collectively, the Seahawks will need to be at their best to have a shot at the upset in front of the "12s" on Thursday night. The 49ers are riding a three-game winning streak over the Seahawks including a 41-23 rout in the last meeting.
Bottom line: The 49ers are the class of their division, and perhaps we'll wonder how they lost three straight games at year's end. San Francisco catches a break, too, with Smith possibly playing at less than 100% after three days to recover. The 49ers are loaded on offense with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Expect San Francisco to win if not cover on Thursday.
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